Malaysia Flight 370

Around midnight on 8 March 2014, Malaysia Flight 370 departed Kuala Lumpur for Beijing with 239 souls onboard. About three hours into the flight, it disappeared. Technical analysis of radio, radar, and satellite data indicated that the aircraft crashed into the Indian Ocean about 1,200 miles off Australia’s west coast.

In the almost three years of searching, investigators have not found any part of this aircraft. Nonetheless, three sheets of aircraft metal have washed up on the eastern shore of Africa. Expert aviation investigators have tentatively concluded that this flotsam is from Flight 370.

On 17 January last, the three nations, Malaysia, China, and Australia, involved in the search for this missing aircraft concluded further investigation of the sea floor of the Indian Ocean is fruitless. The search for Malaysia Flight 370 is officially over.

Read more by S. Martin Shelton.

 

Malaysia Flight 370 Post #17

The Australian government, in concert with Malaysia and China, announced on 4 June last that unless they find an identifiable artifact from the missing Boeing 777 aircraft, Malaysia Flight 370 now missing for fifteen-months, the search would terminate sometime mid-next year. An international team of scientists using available information calculated that Flight 777 crash landed in the Indian Ocean about 1,200 nautical miles off the west coast of Australia—their “best guess” location. To date, search teams have scoured approximately 50,000 square kilometers of ocean floor without finding any debris of the aircraft.

Where is Flight 370? Theories abound. Most are without substance. Here are a few.

1. Pilot suicide theory. One of the two pilots had overwhelmed the other and crashed the airplane into the ocean, or somewhere else.
2. Pilot meltdown theory. One of the two pilots went berserk and overwhelmed the other and crashed the airplane into the ocean, or somewhere else.
3. Third person theory. For reason unknown, and for a serious breech of security, one of the pilots let another person into the cockpit and that person did the foul deed.
4. Commandeering and hijacking theory. Someone, or a gang, took control of the aircraft and ordered the pilots to fly it someplace, or they took control and in a suicide plan crash it without apparent purpose.
5. Mechanical/Electrical theory. Some key element of flight control malfunctioned for reasons we do not understand.
6. Fire in the cockpit theory. A massive fire rendered the aircraft unstable.

All these theories have serious flaws. Too many to recount here. Malaysia Flight 370 is missing, and I reckon that it will remain as one of the twenty-first great aviation disaster. Or is it missing?

Malaysia Flight 370 One Year Ago

Malaysia Flight 370, a Boeing model 777-200 ER (Extended Range) disappeared 1 year and 45 days ago—one of aviation’s biggest mysteries. Notwithstanding extensive searching by temas from Malaysia, China, and Australia in the Indian Ocean off the coast of western Australia, not a trace of this aircraft has been found. In a Press Release, dated 16 April 2015, Malaysian Transport Minister Mister Liow Tiong said that these three countries are “…committed to the search.” Should the aircraft not be found by the first of May, the searches will expand the target area by 23,000 square miles. In total, therefore, the search area will be expanded to 95 percent of the flight path of the plane.

China’s transport minister, Yang Chuantang said that China might contribute more vessels and other assets in the search. (Most of the passengers were Chinese.)

In January, the Malaysian authorities formally declared that the plane’s disappearance was an accident, and that all those on board are presumed dead.

The mystery surrounding this calamity is why the aeroplane was so far off it intended course. We need to know the “why,” “who,” and “where.” Is it in fact in the Indian Ocean off the west coast of Australia?

Many relatives of the passengers posit a host of conspiracy theories including one that the aeroplane was highjacked and landed somewhere safely. I wonder.

Malaysia Flight 370

The saga continues re Malaysia Flight 370 that disappeared a year ago this past weekend. Notwithstanding the labor and equipment employed, not a scintilla of a clue of this aircraft or its 239 passengers and crew has been found. The search extended to the Asia mainland and in the Indian Ocean off the west coast of Australia. The investigation continues. Currently, three Dutch oceanographic ships are exploring the seas. Unfortunately, several large cyclones and particularly nasty weather has seriously hampered the search.

What happened to Malaysia Flight 370? Officially, no one knows. Some of the relatives of those missing and others are convinced that the entire search effort is a ruse to divert attention from what really happened to the flight. Others have formed a committee that offers a “substantial reward” for truthful information.

Indeed Watson, the plot thickens.

Malaysia Flight 370, # 14

On Friday, 30 January 2015, the Malaysian government formally declared Malaysia Flight 370 an accident and all 239 souls on board are presumed deceased. Flight 370 last reported a position late on the evening of 8 March 2014 (now 327 days missing). Transport Minister Liow Tiong Lai said “ At this juncture, there is no evidence to substantiate speculation as to the cause of the accident” (my emphasis). Notwithstanding, extensive oceanographic search in the Indian Ocean by the navies of several nations, no trace of this missing airplane has been found—no debris, no corpses, no “black boxes.” Nothing!

Shortly after Flight 270 vanished, I developed a plausible scenario re this missing flight and sent it to a secure location. If within this year (2015) the airplane is not found, I will open this file and send it to my blog.   Hint: to the Sherlock Holmes aficionados, I would suggest that, “The hound did not bark.”

BOOK REVIEW: The Last Days of the Romanovs: Tragedy at Ekaterinburg by Helen Rappaport

This powerful account of the Romanovs’ internment and regicide at “The House of Special Purpose” at Ekaterinburg, July 1918, is compelling, evocative, and horrifying. I suspect that Rappaport’s book on this ghoulish event is the most meticulously researched and accurate account of the Bolshevik’s liquidation of Czar Nicholas II, Empress Alexandra, and their five children.

She weaves the historical events in a storybook style that imbues life into the Royal Family.  We look askance at the Czar who lacks moral courage, is fearful of innovation and change, and refuses to see the social and political problems engulfing Russia. We wonder at Empress Alexandra’s idiosyncratic brand of Victorian prudery, her impulsive sensuality and her hysterical passion, and her onerous addiction to narcotics: morphine and cocaine.  We empathize with soft tears at the naive innocence of their daughters: Maria, Olga, Tatiana, and Anastasia.  We sympathize with the hemophiliac, Tsarevich Alexy.

We abhor the Bolsheviks’ regicide of the Royal Family as they perished in a fusillade of bullets, bayonets, and blood.  We are appalled that the family’s servants also were included in this senseless butchery: their physician, Doctor Eugene Botkin; valet. Alexey Trupp; cook, Ivan Kharitanov; and maid Anya Demidova.

Lastly, we recoil at the senseless killing of Tatiana’s Pekinese dog “Jimmy”.

We damn Vladimir Lenin who ordered the regicide, Commissar Yakov Yurovsky, the leader of the assassination squad, and the Cheka guards who took unbridled, and unnatural pleasure in their perverse passion.

I wonder if Rappaport had to detail the gruesome details of the regicide and the Cheka’s inept attempts to destroy the corpses.

The Last Days of the Romanovs is a must read for the aficionados of the Russian Revolution.  For the faint of heart, I would suggest an alternate book.

You may also read St. Catherine’s Crown, historical fiction based on the regicide that begs the question, what if Anastasia survived?

Malaysia Flight 370: Will they find it?

A couple days ago, Martin Dolan, chief commissioner of The Australian Transport Safety Bureau, announced that they have resumed the search for Malaysia Flight 370. Recall that this flight disappeared on 8 March last. Speculation posits that the Boeing model 777-200 ER crashed into the Indian Ocean some 1,200 miles west of Australia. A cadre of nations formed to search team for the missing aircraft using all manner of technical equipment. After six-weeks of searching, researches found no trace of the flight. All clues were apocryphal. Authorities called-off the search to regroup.

Since, two oceanographic ships have mapped 23,000 square miles of a remote area, that is located to the northeast of the original search area—an area largely unknown to scientists, They’ve produced three-dimensional maps that show that the seabed is laced with volcanoes, crevasses, plateaus, and ridges. Depth ranges from about 2,000 feet to about 20.000 feet (almost four miles). On station now is the Dutch-owned and Malaysian-sponsored ship Fugro Phoenix—an oceanographic survey ship. Scheduled to arrive on station shortly are the Fugro Discovery and the Fugro Equator.

I’m skeptical that they will find Flight # 370. The search area is fraught with hazards and I’m not sure that their search technology has the capability to find the aircraft—if it is there. Since this aircraft disappeared, a notion tugs at my reason the Malaysia Flight # 370 is elsewhere.

The Sun’s Energy

The folderol re global warming, i.e. climate change, focuses, on-the-whole, on man’s pollution of the atmospheric.  I would suggest that this notion is misguided.  All energy and life on our planet emanates from the sun—a cauldron of nuclear fusion (H-bombs).  Let’s explore how much of the sun’s energy reaches the earth—93 millions-miles distant.

Astrophysicists calculate that our sun fuses 620 metric-tons of Hydrogen per second—an amount of energy beyond our imagination.  Of this gigantic energy flow, approximately 4.0 exajoules per year reach our earth.   Translating this number into everyday language, it’s a 4 followed by 18 zeros—a number so large that it has almost no meaning to the everyday citizen.

Let’s define a “joule.”  It is the amount of work (i.e. energy) required to produce one Watt of power in one second—that is, one Watt-second.  We’re familiar with the term “Watt”: a 60-Watt light bulb, for example, and we have a notion of the amount of light and heat it produces—it’s energy output.

Skipping lots of mumbo-jumbo mathematics, I would estimate that each square foot of our planet gets about 5 Watt-hours of the sun’s energy per day.  And that dear reader, is lots and lots of energy.  You may well ask, “What’s this got to do with global warming.”

This energy from the sun heats our plant and the oceans—which cover about 71 percent of the earth’s surface.  Variations in this heating, caused by sun flares, and other changes, precipitate variations in the earth’s world climate.  Let’s explore just two of the resulting phenomena. Changes in the Pacific Ocean’s water temperature produce two significant weather events: El niño and La niña.

El Niño, briefly, is the unusual and prolonged warming of the equatorial Pacific Ocean’s surface temperature.  Such warming causes weather changes world-wide: for example, it diverts the prevailing direction of the Easterlies, generates monsoons in Asia, and warming in Latin America.  In the northern states of the USA, its effect in the winter is warmer and dryer weather and less snow.  In the southwestern and southeastern states, the weather is cooler and wetter.

La niña, briefly, is the cooling of the water that causes the trade winds in the eastern Pacific to intensify and cold upwelling along the equator and the west coast of South America, and for the trade winds to intensify.  Sea surface temperatures along the equator can fall as much as seven degrees Fahrenheit below normal.  In the USA, the result is above-average precipitation and cooler weather in the northern states.  In the southwest and southeast states it’s warmer than normal and there is less precipitation, and there’s an above average chances for hurricanes in the Atlantic and typhoons in the Pacific.

Accordingly, I would posit that man-made atmospheric pollution has near insignificance in global warming—if there is such an unnatural condition.  It is variations in the sun’s massive energy that bathes our planet that causes abnormal wet and cool weather, and dry and warm conditions.

Malaysia Missing Flight

It’s now thirteen weeks since Malaysia Flight 370—a Boeing model 777 aircraft disappeared.  It’s not where the searchers heard the pings in the Indian Ocean: about one-thousand miles off the coast of western Australia.  Searchers are at a loss.  Flight 370 seems to have vanished into the ether, or elsewhere.

Today, I received an email written by Colonel Bryant Beebe, USAF (ret.).  Now, he flies a Boeing 777 for American Airlines. I’ve added a few explanations of his abbreviations in red parentheses.  After reading Colonel’s Beebe’s email, what are to conclude?

Here’s the Colonel’s email.

“Just a quick update with what I know about the Malaysia 777 disappearance.  The Boeing 777 is the airplane that I fly.  It is a great, safe airplane to fly.  It has, for the most part, triple redundancy in most of its systems, so if one complete system breaks (not just parts of a system), there are usually 2 more to carry the load.  It’s also designed to be easy to employ so 3rd world pilots can successfully fly it.  Sometimes, even that doesn’t work…as the Asiana guys in San Fran showed us.  A perfectly good airplane on a beautiful, sunny day…and they were able to crash it.  It took some doing, but they were able to defeat a bunch of safety systems and get it to where the airplane would not help them and the pilots were too stupid/scared/unskilled/tired to save themselves

There’s many ways to fly the Boeing 777 aircraft and there are safety layers and redundancies built into the airplane.  It is tough to screw up and the airplane will alert you in many ways (noises, alarms, bells and whistles, plus feed back thru the control yoke and rudder pedals and throttles.  In some cases the airplane’s throttles ‘come alive’ if you are going to slow for a sustained period of time)  All designed to help.  But, it’s also non-intrusive.  If you fly the airplane in the parameters it was designed for, you will never know these other things exist.  The computers actually ‘help’ you and the designers made it for the way pilots think and react.  Very Nice.

Now to Malaysia.  There are so many communication systems on the airplane.  3 VHF (Very High Frequency) radios. 2 SatCom (Satellite Communication) systems.  2 HF (High Frequency) radio systems.  Plus Transpoders and active, ‘real time’ monitoring through CPDLC (Controller to Pilot Data Link Clearance) and ADS B (Air Data Service) through the SatCom systems and ACARS (Aircraft Communications Addressing and Reporting System) thru the VHF, HF and SatCom systems.  The air traffic controllers can tell where we are, speed, altitude, etc as well as what our computers and flight guidance system has set into our control panels.  Big Brother for sure!  However, most of these things can be turned off.

But, there are a few systems that can’t be turned off and one, as reported by the WSJ, is the engine monitoring systems (not sure what the acronym for that is, but I’m sure there is one….it’s aviation…there has to be an acronym!).  The Malaysia airplane, like our 777-200’s, use Rolls Royce Trent Engines (as a piece of trivia….Rolls Royce names their motors after rivers….because they always keep on running!)  Rolls Royce leases these motors to us and they monitor them all the time they are running. In fact, a few years back, one of our 777’s developed a slow oil leak due and partial equipment failure.  It wasn’t bad enough to set off the airplane’s alerting system, but RR (Rolls Royce) was looking at it on their computers.  They are in England, they contact our dispatch in Texas, Dispatch sends a message to the crew via SatCom (Satellite Communication in the North Pacific, telling them that RR wants them to closely monitor oil pressure and temp on the left engine.  Also, during the descent, don’t retard the throttle to idle…keep it at or above a certain rpm.  Additionally, they wanted the crew to turn on the engine ‘anti ice’ system as the heats some of the engine components.

The crew did all of that and landed uneventfully, but after landing and during the taxi in, the left engine shut itself down using it’s redundant, computerized operating system that has a logic tree that will not allow it to be shut down if the airplane is in the air…only on the ground.  Pretty good tech.   Anyway, the point was, that RR monitors those engines 100% of the time they are operating.  The WSJ reported that RR indicated the engines on the Malaysia 777 were running normally for 4 to 5 hours after the reported disappearance.  Malaysia denies this.  We shall see.”

Here are my thoughts.

• It’s extremely difficult for an aviator to make a serious error in piloting the Boeing model 777.
• To shut down all the communications system requires an aviator to have in-depth knowledge of the basic design of this aircraft.
• One or both of the aviators of this aircraft colluded to divert this aircraft away from it’s intended course—to Beijing.
• One or both of the aviators pirated Malaysia Flight 370.
• This aircraft is elsewhere.  (I have an educated guess, but will refrain from disclosing it for now.)

Famous Missing Flights

Malaysia Flight 370 disappeared over six weeks ago. The primary search instrument is damaged, and for now, the hunt for this airplane is on hold.  Some of the searchers wonder if this airplane is in the wide area in which they are looking.   Meantime, let’s review some of the more famous aircraft disappearances.

 

8 May 1927.    Charles Nungesser and Francois Coli

Charles Nungesser, French flying ace with 43 aerial victories, and Francois Coli, his expert navigator, departed Le Borget airport, Paris, bound for New York City in their biplane dubbed L’Oiseau Blanc (The White Bird).  Their goal was to be the first persons to complete a successful transatlantic flight.  Sometime after they cleared the Irish coast, they disappeared somewhere in the North Atlantic.  Researchers did not fine the bodies or wreckage of the aircraft.  The fate of Nungesser and Coli has spawned a raft of conspiracy theories and is called the “Everest of aviation mysteries.”

Charles Nunesser

L’Oiseau Blanc (The White Bird)

 

8 November 1935.  Sir Charles Kingsford Smith and his co-pilot John Thompson “Tommy” Pethybridge.

 

Sir Charles Kingsford Smith, the famous Australian aviator and his co-pilot John Thompson “Tommy” Pethybridge were attempting to break the England to Australia speed record in their Lockheed Altar dubbed the Lady Southern Cross.  Currently that record was held by C. W. A. Scott and Tom Campbell Black.  The pair disappeared on their leg from Allahabad, India, to Singapore, somewhere over the Andaman Sea.  Searchers did not find wreckage or were bodies were recovered.

Sir Charles Kingsford Smith

Sir Charles Kingsford Smih and the Lockheed Altair, Lady Southern Cross

 

 

2 July 1937.  Amelia Earhart and Fred Noonan.

 

 

During the summer of 1937, Amelia Earhart (famous aviatrix) and Fred Noonan (expert navigator) attempted to fly around the world in her Lockheed Electra model 10E.  Her planned course was to track as close to the equator as possible.  On 1^st of June 1937 she departed the Oakland Airport.  After numerous stops en route. she landed at Lae, New Guinea, on  29 June.  Completing minor repairs, she departed Lae on 2 July, at 1000 hours, local time.  Her goal was Howland Island, a spec in the Pacific, about 2,200 nautical miles east.  She made several en route position reports.  But on her approach to Howland, some 300 miles out, and for reasons we do not know, she became disoriented.  She tried to communicate with the Coast Guard cutter Itasca, her guide ship stationed at Howland, but failed to get a bearing on this ship.  No trace of the Electra or her or Noonan have been found.  [For a more detailed story regarding Amelia Earhart please see my anthology titled (Aviators, Assassins, and Adventurers).]

 

Amelia Earhart and the Lockheed model 10E

 

 

29 July 1938 Pan American World Airways, Martin M-130 Flying Boat

Early in the morning of 29 July 1938, Pan American World Airways Martin M-140 flying Boat Hawaii Clipper lifted off from Apra Harbor, Guam, bound for Manila—about 1,400 nautical miles west and about a twelve-hour flight.  Hawaii Clipper’s registration number was NC14714 and its call sign was KHAZB.   On board were nine crew members and six passengers

 

 

Pan American World Airways, Martin M-130 Flying Boat

 

 

 

Every half-hour, William McCarty, the Flight Radio Operator and Navigator, transmitted to Manila and Guam a position report and weather conditions. His last report, at noon, was routine: altitude is 9,100 feet, ground speed is 112 knots, scattered rain, and cumulus clouds with tops at 9,200 feet. At the time, the Hawaii Clipper was about 680 nautical miles out from Manila. During the next several minutes, Eduardo Fernandez, radio operator at Radio Panay (Manila), tried to raise the Hawaii Clipper—to no avail. His numerous radio requests for information during the next ninety minutes to the aircraft went unanswered. At 13:30, Pan American officials in Manila declared the Hawaii Clipper missing and broadcasted the distress call on 121.5 mega-cycles to all stations. This distress call was repeated every five minutes for twenty-four hours.  No trace of this flying boat has been found.

 (To read more about this story please see my anthology titled Aviators, Adventurers, and Assassins.)

14 December 1944.  Glenn Miller (famous big-band leader of the 1930s and 1940s)

Major Glenn Miller, USAAF

 

Major Glenn Miller boarded the Noorduyn UC-64 “Norseman” shortly before it departed from the Royal Air Force Base at Clapham, Bedforshire in the United Kingdom bound for Paris.  Glenn Miller was to lead his Army Air Force band in concerts for soldiers.

 

Noorduyn UD-64

 

 

The Norseman disappeared over the English Channel.  No trance of Miller, the pilot, or the aircraft have been found. There are no tangible clues to this tragedy.  The Glenn Miller Orchestra was one of the most famous of the big-bands.  His signature tunes were: Moonlight Serenade, Chattanooga Choo Choo, String of Pearls, Pennsylvania 6-5000, Tuxedo Junction, In the Mood, and Elmer’s Tune

 

5 December 1945.  Navy Flight 19

 

It was a bright, sunny day.  At 1410 on 5 December 1945, five Grumman TBM Avengers, comprising Flight 19, departed Naval Air Station Fort Lauderdale.   Turning east, the formation headed out over the Atlantic on the first leg of a routine training exercise. The flight leader was a flight instructor and the other well-qualified pilots had between 350 to 400 hours flight time.

Grumman TBM Avengers

 

At 1545 hours the flight leader transmited, “Cannot see land,” he blurts. “We seem to be off course.”   A few minutes later he said, “We cannot be sure where we are,” the flight leader announced. “Repeat: Cannot see land.”  Shortly another aviator said, “We can’t find west. Everything is wrong. We can’t be sure of any direction. Everything looks strange, even the ocean.”  Later the tower operators heard, “It looks like we are entering white water.  We’re completely lost.”  For a few moments, the pilot rambles incoherently before uttering the last words ever heard from Flight 19.

Radio contact was lost before the exact problem was determined, and no traces of the planes were ever found in the Bermuda Triangle. Nothing from Flight 19 has been found.

Adding to the mystery of Flight 19, a Martin PBM seaplane with a 13-man crew was launched to search for the missing TBM aircraft.  For reasons we do not know, it also disappeared and has no trace has been found.

 

23 November 1953.  Northrop F-89C.

On the evening of November 23, 1953, operators at Sault Ste. Marie, Michigan Air Defense Command Ground Intercept radar identified an unusual target near the Soo Locks. The Duty Officer ordered an F-89C Scorpion jet from Kinross Air Force Base scrambled to investigate this radar return.  First Lieutenant Flex Eugene Moncla was the Scorpion pilot; Second Lieutenant Robert L. Wilson was the Scorpion’s radar operator.

Wilson had problems tracking the object on the Scorpion’s radar, so ground radar operators gave Moncla directions towards the object. Flying at 500 miles per hour, Moncla eventually closed on the object at an altitude about 8000 feet.

Northrop F-89C Scorpion

                                                      

Ground Control tracked the Scorpion and the unidentified object as two “blips” on the radar screen. The two blips on the radar screen grew closer and closer, until they merge into one radar return.  Assuming that Moncla had flown either under or over the target, Ground Control thought that the Scorpion and the object would again appear as two separate blips Rather, the single blip disappeared from the radar screen, then there was no return at all.  Attempts were made to contact Moncla via radio, but this was unsuccessful. A search and rescue operation was quickly mounted, but failed to find a trace of the plane or the pilots.

Some wags claim that the Scorpion was captured by a Unknown Flying Object (UFO).

 

16 March 1962.  Lockheed L-1049. Super Constellation.  Flying Tiger Line, Charter Flight 739:

Lockheed L-1049. Super Constellation

This U.S. military flight departed Anderson Air Force Base, Guam, bound for Air Force Base, Clark Field in the Republic of the Philippines.  On board were approximately 96 passengers and eleven crew members.  Flight 739 disappeared over the Western Pacific without a trace.  The pilots did not broadcast a distress radio call. If they used visual identification methods, such as flares or markers they were not seen.   The U.S. Civil Aeronautics board ruled that it was “unable to determine the probable cause of the incident.”  All 107 souls were declared missing and presumed dead.

FIN